← TripleTactics TCG Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at TripleTactics TCG Store Championship
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-3-1
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.0%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
56.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1375
· median 1375
· range 1350–1400
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1230
Q3 1359
1525
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 31.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.3% | +5.1 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.2% | -25.2 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Water Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
